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Experiments I build in the open: the hypothesis, the data, and the numbers, including the unflattering ones.

• Research preview · v0.2

  Propensity One

  Published:Nov 1, 2026 |  at 06:00 AM

  Can a small decision model, fine-tuned for one narrow call, beat frontier LLMs at that call? An experiment in predicting which ad gets more clicks, before launch.

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